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Santa Ana vs Móstoles CF — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Santa Ana
Santa Ana
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Móstoles CF
Móstoles CF
4/18/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 2nd Phase - 3Polideportivo Santa Ana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Santa Ana32%
×Draw26%
Móstoles CF42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santa Ana
1.18
Móstoles CF
1.39

Móstoles CF creates 18% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 16 away

creates per match

Santa Ana
1.10
Móstoles CF
0.81

allows per match

Santa Ana
1.97
Móstoles CF
1.25

finishing

Santa Ana+0.00on par
Móstoles CF+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Ana ↓

Móstoles CF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Santa Ana or draw
58%
Santa Ana or Móstoles CF
74%
Draw or Móstoles CF
68%

Winning margin

Santa Ana wins by 2+
13%
Móstoles CF wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Santa Ana 1+ goals
69%
Santa Ana 2+ goals
33%
Santa Ana 3+ goals
12%
Móstoles CF 1+ goals
75%
Móstoles CF 2+ goals
40%
Móstoles CF 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Santa Ana (draw refunded)
43%
Móstoles CF (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Ana at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.97 · 29 matches

Móstoles CF away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.25 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Ana attack 1.10 + Móstoles CF defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.18

Móstoles CF attack 0.81 + Santa Ana defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Santa Ana scores more
32%
level
26%
Móstoles CF scores more
42%

Móstoles CF at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Móstoles CF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Santa Ana 0–2 Móstoles CF

Móstoles CF beat Santa Ana 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on April 18, 2021.

The match was played at Polideportivo Santa Ana in Madrid.