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Móstoles CF vs Santa Ana — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Móstoles CF
Móstoles CF
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Santa Ana
Santa Ana
5/27/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 2nd Phase - 9Polideportivo Andrés Torrejón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Móstoles CF40%
×Draw27%
Santa Ana33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Móstoles CF
1.31
Santa Ana
1.17

Móstoles CF creates 12% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 31 away

creates per match

Móstoles CF
0.69
Santa Ana
0.97

allows per match

Móstoles CF
1.38
Santa Ana
1.94

finishing

Móstoles CF+0.00on par
Santa Ana+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Móstoles CF ↓

Santa Ana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Móstoles CF or draw
67%
Móstoles CF or Santa Ana
73%
Draw or Santa Ana
60%

Winning margin

Móstoles CF wins by 2+
18%
Santa Ana wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Móstoles CF 1+ goals
73%
Móstoles CF 2+ goals
38%
Móstoles CF 3+ goals
14%
Santa Ana 1+ goals
69%
Santa Ana 2+ goals
33%
Santa Ana 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Móstoles CF (draw refunded)
55%
Santa Ana (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Móstoles CF at home — creates 0.69, concedes 1.38 · 16 matches

Santa Ana away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.94 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Móstoles CF attack 0.69 + Santa Ana defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.31

Santa Ana attack 0.97 + Móstoles CF defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Móstoles CF scores more
40%
level
27%
Santa Ana scores more
33%

Móstoles CF at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Móstoles CF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Móstoles CF 2–0 Santa Ana

Móstoles CF beat Santa Ana 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on May 27, 2021.

The match was played at Polideportivo Andrés Torrejón in Móstoles.