Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Santa Ana vs Móstoles — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Santa Ana
Santa Ana
CANC
00:00
Móstoles
Móstoles
4/5/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 32Polideportivo Santa Ana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Santa Ana26%
×Draw25%
Móstoles50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santa Ana
1.10
Móstoles
1.64

Móstoles creates 49% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 76 away

creates per match

Santa Ana
1.10
Móstoles
1.30

allows per match

Santa Ana
1.97
Móstoles
1.09

finishing

Santa Ana+0.00on par
Móstoles+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Ana ↓

Móstoles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Santa Ana or draw
50%
Santa Ana or Móstoles
75%
Draw or Móstoles
74%

Winning margin

Santa Ana wins by 2+
10%
Móstoles wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Santa Ana 1+ goals
67%
Santa Ana 2+ goals
30%
Santa Ana 3+ goals
10%
Móstoles 1+ goals
81%
Móstoles 2+ goals
49%
Móstoles 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Santa Ana (draw refunded)
34%
Móstoles (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Ana at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.97 · 29 matches

Móstoles away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.09 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Ana attack 1.10 + Móstoles defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.10

Móstoles attack 1.30 + Santa Ana defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Santa Ana scores more
26%
level
25%
Móstoles scores more
50%

Móstoles at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Móstoles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Santa Ana vs Móstoles — Match Preview

Santa Ana face Móstoles on April 5, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Santa Ana host Móstoles at Polideportivo Santa Ana.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.