Móstoles 2–0 Santa Ana: Result & Stats

Móstoles

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Santa Ana

Aitor Asensio 79', 74'

11/17/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 13Estadio Municipal de El Soto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Móstoles56%

×Draw23%

Santa Ana21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MóstolesExpected goals in this matchSanta Ana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

0.99

Móstoles

1.80

Santa Ana

0.99

Móstoles creates 82% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 31 away

1.67

creates per match

0.97

1.01

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Móstoles

1.67

Santa Ana

0.97

allows per match

Móstoles

1.01

Santa Ana

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Móstoles+0.00on par

Santa Ana+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Móstoles ↓

Santa Ana →

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Móstoles or draw

79%

Móstoles or Santa Ana

77%

Draw or Santa Ana

44%

Winning margin

Móstoles wins by 2+

32%

Santa Ana wins by 2+

Team goals

Móstoles 1+ goals

83%

Móstoles 2+ goals

54%

Móstoles 3+ goals

27%

Santa Ana 1+ goals

63%

Santa Ana 2+ goals

26%

Santa Ana 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Móstoles (draw refunded)

73%

Santa Ana (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Móstoles at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.01 · 76 matches

Santa Ana away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.94 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Móstoles attack 1.67 + Santa Ana defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.80

Santa Ana attack 0.97 + Móstoles defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 56%?"

Móstoles scores more

56%

level

23%

Santa Ana scores more

21%

Móstoles at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Móstoles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

51'

Jesús Salmerón← Jorge Cortázar

55'

Fer← Sergio Orejas

71'

Aitor Lorá← Alberto Bustarviejo

74'

Aitor Asensio

79'

Aitor Asensio

81'

More← Mozo

81'

Luis Molina← Ignacio Goya

89'

A. Martinuccio← Portilla

Móstoles

Santa

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

Manager: Javi Meléndez

51'▲Jesús Salmerón←▼Jorge Cortázar

81'▲More←▼Mozo

89'▲A. Martinuccio←▼Portilla

Móstoles substitutes

SalmerónMoreMartinuccio

Manager: Jesús Lucas

55'▲Fer←▼Sergio Orejas

71'▲Aitor Lorá←▼Alberto Bustarviejo

81'▲Luis Molina←▼Ignacio Goya

Santa Ana substitutes

FerLoráMolina

Match Recap: Móstoles vs Santa Ana

Móstoles beat Santa Ana 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on November 17, 2019.

Goals: Aitor Asensio (74', 79').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de El Soto in Móstoles.

Móstoles vs Santa Ana — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Móstoles vs Santa Ana