Santa Ana 2–3 Leganés II: Result & Stats

Santa Ana

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 3

Leganés II

11/24/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 14Polideportivo Santa Ana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Santa Ana24%

×Draw22%

Leganés II54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santa AnaExpected goals in this matchLeganés II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.93

Santa Ana

1.21

Leganés II

1.93

Leganés II creates 60% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 79 away

1.10

creates per match

1.89

1.97

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Santa Ana

1.10

Leganés II

1.89

allows per match

Santa Ana

1.97

Leganés II

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santa Ana+0.00on par

Leganés II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Ana ↓

Leganés II →

0–04%

0–18%

0–28%

0–35%

0–43%

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Santa Ana or draw

46%

Santa Ana or Leganés II

78%

Draw or Leganés II

76%

Winning margin

Santa Ana wins by 2+

Leganés II wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Santa Ana 1+ goals

70%

Santa Ana 2+ goals

34%

Santa Ana 3+ goals

12%

Leganés II 1+ goals

85%

Leganés II 2+ goals

57%

Leganés II 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Santa Ana (draw refunded)

31%

Leganés II (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Santa Ana at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.97 · 29 matches

Leganés II away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.32 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Santa Ana attack 1.10 + Leganés II defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.21

Leganés II attack 1.89 + Santa Ana defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 54%?"

Santa Ana scores more

24%

level

22%

Leganés II scores more

54%

Leganés II at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Leganés II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff