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Leganés II vs Santa Ana — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Leganés II
Leganés II
CANC
00:00
Santa Ana
Santa Ana
4/9/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 33Estadio Anexo Butarque

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Leganés II55%
×Draw24%
Santa Ana20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leganés II
1.67
Santa Ana
0.90

Leganés II creates 86% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 31 away

creates per match

Leganés II
1.41
Santa Ana
0.97

allows per match

Leganés II
0.82
Santa Ana
1.94

finishing

Leganés II+0.00on par
Santa Ana+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leganés II ↓

Santa Ana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Leganés II or draw
80%
Leganés II or Santa Ana
76%
Draw or Santa Ana
45%

Winning margin

Leganés II wins by 2+
30%
Santa Ana wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Leganés II 1+ goals
81%
Leganés II 2+ goals
50%
Leganés II 3+ goals
23%
Santa Ana 1+ goals
59%
Santa Ana 2+ goals
23%
Santa Ana 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Leganés II (draw refunded)
73%
Santa Ana (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leganés II at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.82 · 78 matches

Santa Ana away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.94 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leganés II attack 1.41 + Santa Ana defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.67

Santa Ana attack 0.97 + Leganés II defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Leganés II scores more
55%
level
24%
Santa Ana scores more
20%

Leganés II at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Leganés II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Leganés II host Santa Ana

April 9, 2020: Leganés II take on Santa Ana in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Leganés II host Santa Ana at Estadio Anexo Butarque.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.