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Santa Ana vs Carabanchel — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Santa Ana
Santa Ana
CANC
00:00
Carabanchel
Carabanchel
4/19/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 34Polideportivo Santa Ana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Santa Ana34%
×Draw25%
Carabanchel41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santa Ana
1.31
Carabanchel
1.46

Carabanchel creates 11% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 82 away

creates per match

Santa Ana
1.10
Carabanchel
0.95

allows per match

Santa Ana
1.97
Carabanchel
1.52

finishing

Santa Ana+0.00on par
Carabanchel+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Ana ↓

Carabanchel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Santa Ana or draw
59%
Santa Ana or Carabanchel
75%
Draw or Carabanchel
66%

Winning margin

Santa Ana wins by 2+
15%
Carabanchel wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Santa Ana 1+ goals
73%
Santa Ana 2+ goals
38%
Santa Ana 3+ goals
14%
Carabanchel 1+ goals
77%
Carabanchel 2+ goals
43%
Carabanchel 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Santa Ana (draw refunded)
45%
Carabanchel (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Ana at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.97 · 29 matches

Carabanchel away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.52 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Ana attack 1.10 + Carabanchel defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.31

Carabanchel attack 0.95 + Santa Ana defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Santa Ana scores more
34%
level
25%
Carabanchel scores more
41%

Carabanchel at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Carabanchel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Santa Ana host Carabanchel

April 19, 2020: Santa Ana take on Carabanchel in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Santa Ana host Carabanchel at Polideportivo Santa Ana.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.