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Carabanchel vs Santa Ana — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Carabanchel
Carabanchel
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Santa Ana
Santa Ana
12/1/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 15Estadio La Mina de Carabanchel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Carabanchel50%
×Draw26%
Santa Ana24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carabanchel
1.50
Santa Ana
0.95

Carabanchel creates 58% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 31 away

creates per match

Carabanchel
1.07
Santa Ana
0.97

allows per match

Carabanchel
0.93
Santa Ana
1.94

finishing

Carabanchel+0.00on par
Santa Ana+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carabanchel ↓

Santa Ana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Carabanchel or draw
76%
Carabanchel or Santa Ana
74%
Draw or Santa Ana
50%

Winning margin

Carabanchel wins by 2+
25%
Santa Ana wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Carabanchel 1+ goals
78%
Carabanchel 2+ goals
44%
Carabanchel 3+ goals
19%
Santa Ana 1+ goals
61%
Santa Ana 2+ goals
25%
Santa Ana 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Carabanchel (draw refunded)
68%
Santa Ana (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carabanchel at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.93 · 80 matches

Santa Ana away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.94 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carabanchel attack 1.07 + Santa Ana defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.50

Santa Ana attack 0.97 + Carabanchel defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Carabanchel scores more
50%
level
26%
Santa Ana scores more
24%

Carabanchel at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Carabanchel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Carabanchel vs Santa Ana

Santa Ana beat Carabanchel 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on December 1, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio La Mina de Carabanchel in Madrid.