Santa Amalia 1–0 Olivenza: Result & Stats

Santa Amalia

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Olivenza

5/4/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 33Estadio Municipal de Santa Amalia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Santa Amalia42%

×Draw28%

Olivenza30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santa AmaliaExpected goals in this matchOlivenza

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.02

Santa Amalia

1.25

Olivenza

1.02

Santa Amalia creates 23% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 93 away

0.94

creates per match

1.00

1.03

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Santa Amalia

0.94

Olivenza

1.00

allows per match

Santa Amalia

1.03

Olivenza

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santa Amalia+0.00on par

Olivenza+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Amalia ↓

Olivenza →

0–010%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Santa Amalia or draw

70%

Santa Amalia or Olivenza

72%

Draw or Olivenza

58%

Winning margin

Santa Amalia wins by 2+

18%

Olivenza wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Santa Amalia 1+ goals

71%

Santa Amalia 2+ goals

36%

Santa Amalia 3+ goals

13%

Olivenza 1+ goals

64%

Olivenza 2+ goals

27%

Olivenza 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Santa Amalia (draw refunded)

58%

Olivenza (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Santa Amalia at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.03 · 34 matches

Olivenza away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.56 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Santa Amalia attack 0.94 + Olivenza defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.25

Olivenza attack 1.00 + Santa Amalia defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

Santa Amalia scores more

42%

level

28%

Olivenza scores more

30%

Santa Amalia at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Santa Amalia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff