Olivenza 0–2 Santa Amalia: Result & Stats

Olivenza

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Santa Amalia

12/22/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 16Ciudad Deportiva Ramón Rocha Maqueda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Olivenza42%

×Draw27%

Santa Amalia31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OlivenzaExpected goals in this matchSanta Amalia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.11

Olivenza

1.35

Santa Amalia

1.11

Olivenza creates 22% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 34 away

1.29

creates per match

0.85

1.38

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Olivenza

1.29

Santa Amalia

0.85

allows per match

Olivenza

1.38

Santa Amalia

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olivenza+0.00on par

Santa Amalia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olivenza ↓

Santa Amalia →

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Olivenza or draw

69%

Olivenza or Santa Amalia

73%

Draw or Santa Amalia

58%

Winning margin

Olivenza wins by 2+

20%

Santa Amalia wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Olivenza 1+ goals

74%

Olivenza 2+ goals

39%

Olivenza 3+ goals

15%

Santa Amalia 1+ goals

67%

Santa Amalia 2+ goals

30%

Santa Amalia 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Olivenza (draw refunded)

58%

Santa Amalia (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Olivenza at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.38 · 93 matches

Santa Amalia away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.41 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Olivenza attack 1.29 + Santa Amalia defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.35

Santa Amalia attack 0.85 + Olivenza defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

Olivenza scores more

42%

level

27%

Santa Amalia scores more

31%

Olivenza at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Olivenza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff