Santa Amalia 4–1 Castuera: Result & Stats

Santa Amalia

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Castuera

Miguel Ángel 78'

Jaime Cañamero 74'

Carlinos 32'

David Díaz 13'

Álex Cañero 79'

3/2/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 24Estadio Municipal de Santa Amalia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Santa Amalia43%

×Draw28%

Castuera28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santa AmaliaExpected goals in this matchCastuera

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.96

Santa Amalia

1.27

Castuera

0.96

Santa Amalia creates 32% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 34 away

0.94

creates per match

0.88

1.03

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Santa Amalia

0.94

Castuera

0.88

allows per match

Santa Amalia

1.03

Castuera

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santa Amalia+0.00on par

Castuera+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Amalia ↓

Castuera →

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Santa Amalia or draw

72%

Santa Amalia or Castuera

72%

Draw or Castuera

57%

Winning margin

Santa Amalia wins by 2+

20%

Castuera wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Santa Amalia 1+ goals

72%

Santa Amalia 2+ goals

36%

Santa Amalia 3+ goals

14%

Castuera 1+ goals

62%

Castuera 2+ goals

25%

Castuera 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Santa Amalia (draw refunded)

61%

Castuera (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Santa Amalia at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.03 · 34 matches

Castuera away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.59 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Santa Amalia attack 0.94 + Castuera defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.27

Castuera attack 0.88 + Santa Amalia defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Santa Amalia scores more

43%

level

28%

Castuera scores more

28%

Santa Amalia at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Santa Amalia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

David Díaz

32'

Carlinos

35'

A. Chavero

37'

M. Garcia

38'

D. Diaz

38'

J. Quintero

43'

J. Fernandez

45'

J. Fernandez

45'

J. Fernandez

46'

José Gómez← Ángel Maldonado

46'

Álex Cañero← Jesús Guinda

53'

M. R. Torvisco

59'

J. Canamero

64'

D. Diaz

64'

D. Diaz

65'

Miguel Ángel← Antonio González

70'

N. Ceidaite← Juanjo Neiva

70'

Abraham Bueno← Loren Ruiz

70'

Fernando Martínez← Alejandro Chavero

74'

Jaime Cañamero

78'

Miguel Ángel

79'

Álex Cañero

80'

Victor Tablero← Manuel García

87'

Jhojan Osorio← Pelu

87'

Enrique Muñoz← Jaime Cañamero

Santa

Castuera

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: Ricardo Tapia

65'▲Miguel Ángel←▼Antonio González

80'▲Victor Tablero←▼Manuel García

87'▲Jhojan Osorio←▼Pelu

87'▲Enrique Muñoz←▼Jaime Cañamero

Santa Amalia substitutes

ÁngelTableroOsorioMuñoz

Manager: Manuel Agudo

46'▲José Gómez←▼Ángel Maldonado

46'▲Álex Cañero←▼Jesús Guinda

70'▲N. Ceidaite←▼Juanjo Neiva

70'▲Abraham Bueno←▼Loren Ruiz

70'▲Fernando Martínez←▼Alejandro Chavero

Castuera substitutes

GómezCañeroCeidaiteBuenoMartínez

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14: Santa Amalia 4–1 Castuera

Santa Amalia beat Castuera 4-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on March 2, 2025.

Goals: David Díaz (13'), Carlinos (32'), Jaime Cañamero (74'), Miguel Ángel (78'), Álex Cañero (79').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Santa Amalia in Santa Amalia.

Santa Amalia vs Castuera — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14: Santa Amalia 4–1 Castuera