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Castuera vs Santa Amalia — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Castuera
Castuera
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Santa Amalia
Santa Amalia
10/20/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 7Estadio Manuel Ruiz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Castuera50%
×Draw24%
Santa Amalia25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Castuera
1.66
Santa Amalia
1.11

Castuera creates 50% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 34 away

creates per match

Castuera
1.91
Santa Amalia
0.85

allows per match

Castuera
1.38
Santa Amalia
1.41

finishing

Castuera+0.00on par
Santa Amalia+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Castuera ↓

Santa Amalia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Castuera or draw
75%
Castuera or Santa Amalia
76%
Draw or Santa Amalia
50%

Winning margin

Castuera wins by 2+
27%
Santa Amalia wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Castuera 1+ goals
81%
Castuera 2+ goals
49%
Castuera 3+ goals
23%
Santa Amalia 1+ goals
67%
Santa Amalia 2+ goals
30%
Santa Amalia 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Castuera (draw refunded)
66%
Santa Amalia (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Castuera at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.38 · 34 matches

Santa Amalia away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.41 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Castuera attack 1.91 + Santa Amalia defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.66

Santa Amalia attack 0.85 + Castuera defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Castuera scores more
50%
level
24%
Santa Amalia scores more
25%

Castuera at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Castuera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14: Castuera 1–0 Santa Amalia

Castuera beat Santa Amalia 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on October 20, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Manuel Ruiz in Castuera.