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Santa Amalia vs Badajoz — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Santa Amalia
Santa Amalia
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Badajoz
Badajoz
12/8/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 14Estadio Municipal de Santa Amalia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Santa Amalia25%
×Draw30%
Badajoz45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santa Amalia
0.81
Badajoz
1.19

Badajoz creates 47% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 37 away

creates per match

Santa Amalia
0.94
Badajoz
1.35

allows per match

Santa Amalia
1.03
Badajoz
0.68

finishing

Santa Amalia+0.00on par
Badajoz+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Amalia ↓

Badajoz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–116%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Santa Amalia or draw
55%
Santa Amalia or Badajoz
70%
Draw or Badajoz
75%

Winning margin

Santa Amalia wins by 2+
8%
Badajoz wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Santa Amalia 1+ goals
56%
Santa Amalia 2+ goals
19%
Santa Amalia 3+ goals
5%
Badajoz 1+ goals
70%
Badajoz 2+ goals
33%
Badajoz 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Santa Amalia (draw refunded)
36%
Badajoz (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Amalia at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.03 · 34 matches

Badajoz away — creates 1.35, concedes 0.68 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Amalia attack 0.94 + Badajoz defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.81

Badajoz attack 1.35 + Santa Amalia defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Santa Amalia scores more
25%
level
30%
Badajoz scores more
45%

Badajoz at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Badajoz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14: Santa Amalia 0–0 Badajoz

Santa Amalia and Badajoz drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on December 8, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Santa Amalia in Santa Amalia.