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Badajoz vs Santa Amalia — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Badajoz
Badajoz
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Santa Amalia
Santa Amalia
1/25/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 19Estadio Municipal Nuevo Vivero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Badajoz62%
×Draw23%
Santa Amalia15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Badajoz
1.75
Santa Amalia
0.73

Badajoz creates 140% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 34 away

creates per match

Badajoz
2.09
Santa Amalia
0.85

allows per match

Badajoz
0.62
Santa Amalia
1.41

finishing

Badajoz+0.00on par
Santa Amalia+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Badajoz ↓

Santa Amalia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Badajoz or draw
85%
Badajoz or Santa Amalia
77%
Draw or Santa Amalia
38%

Winning margin

Badajoz wins by 2+
35%
Santa Amalia wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Badajoz 1+ goals
83%
Badajoz 2+ goals
52%
Badajoz 3+ goals
25%
Santa Amalia 1+ goals
52%
Santa Amalia 2+ goals
17%
Santa Amalia 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Badajoz (draw refunded)
80%
Santa Amalia (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Badajoz at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.62 · 34 matches

Santa Amalia away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.41 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Badajoz attack 2.09 + Santa Amalia defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.75

Santa Amalia attack 0.85 + Badajoz defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Badajoz scores more
62%
level
23%
Santa Amalia scores more
15%

Badajoz at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Badajoz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Badajoz vs Santa Amalia

Badajoz and Santa Amalia drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on January 25, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Nuevo Vivero in Badajoz.