Sant Andreu vs Igualada: Preview & Prediction

Sant Andreu

CANC

00:00

Igualada

3/25/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 30Camp Municipal Narcís Sala

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Sant Andreu59%

×Draw23%

Igualada18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sant AndreuExpected goals in this matchIgualada

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

0.85

Sant Andreu

1.78

Igualada

0.85

Sant Andreu creates 109% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 28 away

1.56

creates per match

0.93

0.78

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Sant Andreu

1.56

Igualada

0.93

allows per match

Sant Andreu

0.78

Igualada

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sant Andreu+0.00on par

Igualada+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sant Andreu ↓

Igualada →

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Sant Andreu or draw

82%

Sant Andreu or Igualada

77%

Draw or Igualada

41%

Winning margin

Sant Andreu wins by 2+

34%

Igualada wins by 2+

Team goals

Sant Andreu 1+ goals

83%

Sant Andreu 2+ goals

53%

Sant Andreu 3+ goals

26%

Igualada 1+ goals

57%

Igualada 2+ goals

21%

Igualada 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Sant Andreu (draw refunded)

77%

Igualada (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Sant Andreu at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.78 · 59 matches

Igualada away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.00 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Sant Andreu attack 1.56 + Igualada defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.78

Igualada attack 0.93 + Sant Andreu defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 59%?"

Sant Andreu scores more

59%

level

23%

Igualada scores more

18%

Sant Andreu at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Sant Andreu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sant Andreu vs Igualada — Match Preview

Sant Andreu face Igualada on March 25, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Sant Andreu host Igualada at Camp Municipal Narcís Sala.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.

Sant Andreu vs Igualada — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Sant Andreu vs Igualada — Match Preview