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Igualada vs Sant Andreu — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Igualada
Igualada
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Sant Andreu
Sant Andreu
11/2/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 11Estadi Cem Les Comes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Igualada29%
×Draw27%
Sant Andreu45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Igualada
1.08
Sant Andreu
1.42

Sant Andreu creates 31% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 57 away

creates per match

Igualada
1.00
Sant Andreu
1.47

allows per match

Igualada
1.38
Sant Andreu
1.16

finishing

Igualada+0.00on par
Sant Andreu+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Igualada ↓

Sant Andreu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Igualada or draw
55%
Igualada or Sant Andreu
73%
Draw or Sant Andreu
71%

Winning margin

Igualada wins by 2+
11%
Sant Andreu wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Igualada 1+ goals
66%
Igualada 2+ goals
29%
Igualada 3+ goals
10%
Sant Andreu 1+ goals
76%
Sant Andreu 2+ goals
41%
Sant Andreu 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Igualada (draw refunded)
39%
Sant Andreu (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Igualada at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.38 · 29 matches

Sant Andreu away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.16 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Igualada attack 1.00 + Sant Andreu defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.08

Sant Andreu attack 1.47 + Igualada defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Igualada scores more
29%
level
27%
Sant Andreu scores more
45%

Sant Andreu at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sant Andreu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Igualada vs Sant Andreu

Sant Andreu beat Igualada 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on November 2, 2019.

The match was played at Estadi Cem Les Comes in Igualada.