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Sansinena vs Deportivo Roca — Torneo Federal A 2018

Sansinena
Sansinena
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Deportivo Roca
Deportivo Roca
10/21/2018Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Zone 1 - 9Estadio Luis Molina (General Daniel Cerri, Provincia de Buenos Aires)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Sansinena55%
×Draw29%
Deportivo Roca15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sansinena
1.29
Deportivo Roca
0.53

Sansinena creates 143% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 12 away

creates per match

Sansinena
1.26
Deportivo Roca
0.17

allows per match

Sansinena
0.89
Deportivo Roca
1.33

finishing

Sansinena+0.00on par
Deportivo Roca+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sansinena ↓

Deportivo Roca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–19%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Sansinena or draw
85%
Sansinena or Deportivo Roca
71%
Draw or Deportivo Roca
45%

Winning margin

Sansinena wins by 2+
26%
Deportivo Roca wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Sansinena 1+ goals
72%
Sansinena 2+ goals
37%
Sansinena 3+ goals
14%
Deportivo Roca 1+ goals
41%
Deportivo Roca 2+ goals
10%
Deportivo Roca 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Sansinena (draw refunded)
78%
Deportivo Roca (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sansinena at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.89 · 81 matches

Deportivo Roca away — creates 0.17, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sansinena attack 1.26 + Deportivo Roca defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.29

Deportivo Roca attack 0.17 + Sansinena defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Sansinena scores more
55%
level
29%
Deportivo Roca scores more
15%

Sansinena at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Sansinena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sansinena vs Deportivo Roca

Sansinena beat Deportivo Roca 2-0 in Torneo Federal A on October 21, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Luis Molina (General Daniel Cerri, Provincia de Buenos Aires).