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Deportivo Roca vs Sansinena — Torneo Federal A 2018

Deportivo Roca
Deportivo Roca
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sansinena
Sansinena
12/10/2018Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Zone 1 - 18Estadio Luís Maiolino (General Roca, Provincia de Río Negro)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Deportivo Roca44%
×Draw29%
Sansinena27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Roca
1.27
Sansinena
0.92

Deportivo Roca creates 38% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 85 away

creates per match

Deportivo Roca
1.25
Sansinena
0.76

allows per match

Deportivo Roca
1.08
Sansinena
1.28

finishing

Deportivo Roca+0.00on par
Sansinena+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Roca ↓

Sansinena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Deportivo Roca or draw
73%
Deportivo Roca or Sansinena
71%
Draw or Sansinena
56%

Winning margin

Deportivo Roca wins by 2+
20%
Sansinena wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Deportivo Roca 1+ goals
72%
Deportivo Roca 2+ goals
36%
Deportivo Roca 3+ goals
14%
Sansinena 1+ goals
60%
Sansinena 2+ goals
23%
Sansinena 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Roca (draw refunded)
62%
Sansinena (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Roca at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.08 · 12 matches

Sansinena away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.28 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Roca attack 1.25 + Sansinena defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.27

Sansinena attack 0.76 + Deportivo Roca defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Deportivo Roca scores more
44%
level
29%
Sansinena scores more
27%

Deportivo Roca at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Deportivo Roca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torneo Federal A: Deportivo Roca 0–1 Sansinena

Sansinena beat Deportivo Roca 1-0 in Torneo Federal A on December 10, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Luís Maiolino (General Roca, Provincia de Río Negro).