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Sanna Khanh Hoa vs An Giang — Cup 2019

Sanna Khanh Hoa
Sanna Khanh Hoa
FT
0 – 2
An Giang
An Giang
3/29/2019CupCup · 1st RoundSân vận động 19 tháng 8 (Nha Trang Stadium) (Nha Trang)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Sanna Khanh Hoa34%
×Draw23%
An Giang43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sanna Khanh Hoa
1.50
An Giang
1.73

An Giang creates 15% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Sanna Khanh Hoa
1.00
An Giang
1.67

allows per match

Sanna Khanh Hoa
1.80
An Giang
2.00

finishing

Sanna Khanh Hoa+0.00on par
An Giang+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sanna Khanh Hoa ↓

An Giang →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Sanna Khanh Hoa or draw
57%
Sanna Khanh Hoa or An Giang
77%
Draw or An Giang
66%

Winning margin

Sanna Khanh Hoa wins by 2+
16%
An Giang wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Sanna Khanh Hoa 1+ goals
78%
Sanna Khanh Hoa 2+ goals
44%
Sanna Khanh Hoa 3+ goals
19%
An Giang 1+ goals
82%
An Giang 2+ goals
52%
An Giang 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Sanna Khanh Hoa (draw refunded)
44%
An Giang (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sanna Khanh Hoa at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

An Giang away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sanna Khanh Hoa attack 1.00 + An Giang defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

An Giang attack 1.67 + Sanna Khanh Hoa defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sanna Khanh Hoa scores more
34%
level
23%
An Giang scores more
43%

An Giang at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "An Giang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Sanna Khanh Hoa 0–2 An Giang

An Giang beat Sanna Khanh Hoa 2-0 in Cup on March 29, 2019.

The match was played at Sân vận động 19 tháng 8 (Nha Trang Stadium) (Nha Trang).