Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sanluqueño vs Sabadell — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Sanluqueño
Sanluqueño
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Sabadell
Sabadell
9/7/2025Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2Estadio El Palmar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Sanluqueño32%
×Draw28%
Sabadell39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sanluqueño
1.06
Sabadell
1.21

Sabadell creates 14% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 57 away

creates per match

Sanluqueño
1.05
Sabadell
1.23

allows per match

Sanluqueño
1.20
Sabadell
1.07

finishing

Sanluqueño+0.00on par
Sabadell+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sanluqueño ↓

Sabadell →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Sanluqueño or draw
61%
Sanluqueño or Sabadell
72%
Draw or Sabadell
68%

Winning margin

Sanluqueño wins by 2+
12%
Sabadell wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Sanluqueño 1+ goals
65%
Sanluqueño 2+ goals
29%
Sanluqueño 3+ goals
9%
Sabadell 1+ goals
70%
Sabadell 2+ goals
34%
Sabadell 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Sanluqueño (draw refunded)
45%
Sabadell (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sanluqueño at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.20 · 76 matches

Sabadell away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.07 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sanluqueño attack 1.05 + Sabadell defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.06

Sabadell attack 1.23 + Sanluqueño defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sanluqueño scores more
32%
level
28%
Sabadell scores more
39%

Sabadell at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sabadell will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Sanluqueño 2–2 Sabadell

Sanluqueño and Sabadell drew 2-2 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on September 7, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio El Palmar in Sanlúcar de Barrameda.