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Sabadell vs Sanluqueño — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Sabadell
Sabadell
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sanluqueño
Sanluqueño
10/15/2021Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 8Estadi de la Nova Creu Alta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Sabadell50%
×Draw28%
Sanluqueño22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sabadell
1.33
Sanluqueño
0.77

Sabadell creates 73% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 76 away

creates per match

Sabadell
1.21
Sanluqueño
0.80

allows per match

Sabadell
0.74
Sanluqueño
1.45

finishing

Sabadell+0.00on par
Sanluqueño+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sabadell ↓

Sanluqueño →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Sabadell or draw
78%
Sabadell or Sanluqueño
72%
Draw or Sanluqueño
50%

Winning margin

Sabadell wins by 2+
24%
Sanluqueño wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Sabadell 1+ goals
74%
Sabadell 2+ goals
38%
Sabadell 3+ goals
15%
Sanluqueño 1+ goals
54%
Sanluqueño 2+ goals
18%
Sanluqueño 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Sabadell (draw refunded)
70%
Sanluqueño (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sabadell at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.74 · 57 matches

Sanluqueño away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.45 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sabadell attack 1.21 + Sanluqueño defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.33

Sanluqueño attack 0.80 + Sabadell defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Sabadell scores more
50%
level
28%
Sanluqueño scores more
22%

Sabadell at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Sabadell will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sabadell vs Sanluqueño

Sabadell beat Sanluqueño 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on October 15, 2021.

The match was played at Estadi de la Nova Creu Alta in Sabadell.