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Şanlıurfaspor vs Iğdır FK — 1. Lig 2018

Şanlıurfaspor
Şanlıurfaspor
FT
3 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Iğdır FK
Iğdır FK
10/26/20241. Lig1. Lig · Round 10Şanlıurfa 11 Nisan Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Şanlıurfaspor35%
×Draw27%
Iğdır FK38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Şanlıurfaspor
1.20
Iğdır FK
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 38 away

creates per match

Şanlıurfaspor
1.05
Iğdır FK
1.34

allows per match

Şanlıurfaspor
1.19
Iğdır FK
1.34

finishing

Şanlıurfaspor+0.00on par
Iğdır FK+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Şanlıurfaspor ↓

Iğdır FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Şanlıurfaspor or draw
62%
Şanlıurfaspor or Iğdır FK
73%
Draw or Iğdır FK
65%

Winning margin

Şanlıurfaspor wins by 2+
15%
Iğdır FK wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Şanlıurfaspor 1+ goals
70%
Şanlıurfaspor 2+ goals
34%
Şanlıurfaspor 3+ goals
12%
Iğdır FK 1+ goals
72%
Iğdır FK 2+ goals
36%
Iğdır FK 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Şanlıurfaspor (draw refunded)
48%
Iğdır FK (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Şanlıurfaspor at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.19 · 37 matches

Iğdır FK away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.34 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Şanlıurfaspor attack 1.05 + Iğdır FK defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.20

Iğdır FK attack 1.34 + Şanlıurfaspor defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Şanlıurfaspor scores more
35%
level
27%
Iğdır FK scores more
38%

Iğdır FK at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Iğdır FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Şanlıurfaspor vs Iğdır FK

Şanlıurfaspor and Iğdır FK drew 3-3 in 1. Lig on October 26, 2024.

The match was played at Şanlıurfa 11 Nisan Stadyumu in Şanlıurfa.