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Iğdır FK vs Şanlıurfaspor — 1. Lig 2018

Iğdır FK
Iğdır FK
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Şanlıurfaspor
Şanlıurfaspor
3/8/20251. Lig1. Lig · Round 29Iğdır Şehir Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Iğdır FK48%
×Draw26%
Şanlıurfaspor26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Iğdır FK
1.50
Şanlıurfaspor
1.02

Iğdır FK creates 47% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 39 away

creates per match

Iğdır FK
1.53
Şanlıurfaspor
1.10

allows per match

Iğdır FK
0.95
Şanlıurfaspor
1.46

finishing

Iğdır FK+0.00on par
Şanlıurfaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iğdır FK ↓

Şanlıurfaspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Iğdır FK or draw
74%
Iğdır FK or Şanlıurfaspor
74%
Draw or Şanlıurfaspor
52%

Winning margin

Iğdır FK wins by 2+
24%
Şanlıurfaspor wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Iğdır FK 1+ goals
78%
Iğdır FK 2+ goals
44%
Iğdır FK 3+ goals
19%
Şanlıurfaspor 1+ goals
64%
Şanlıurfaspor 2+ goals
27%
Şanlıurfaspor 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Iğdır FK (draw refunded)
65%
Şanlıurfaspor (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Iğdır FK at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.95 · 38 matches

Şanlıurfaspor away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.46 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Iğdır FK attack 1.53 + Şanlıurfaspor defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.50

Şanlıurfaspor attack 1.10 + Iğdır FK defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Iğdır FK scores more
48%
level
26%
Şanlıurfaspor scores more
26%

Iğdır FK at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Iğdır FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Lig: Iğdır FK 2–2 Şanlıurfaspor

Iğdır FK and Şanlıurfaspor drew 2-2 in 1. Lig on March 8, 2025.

The match was played at Iğdır Şehir Stadyumu in Iğdır.