Şanlıurfaspor 1–2 Gençlerbirliği S.K.

Şanlıurfaspor

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Gençlerbirliği S.K.

M. Çapar 30'

O. Karakullukçu 71'

B. Çağıran 24'

10/7/2023

1. Lig · Round 8Şanlıurfa 11 Nisan Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Şanlıurfaspor34%

×Draw28%

Gençlerbirliği S.K.38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ŞanlıurfasporExpected goals in this matchGençlerbirliği S.K.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.23

Şanlıurfaspor

1.15

Gençlerbirliği S.K.

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 89 away

1.05

creates per match

1.26

1.19

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Şanlıurfaspor

1.05

Gençlerbirliği S.K.

1.26

allows per match

Şanlıurfaspor

1.19

Gençlerbirliği S.K.

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Şanlıurfaspor+0.00on par

Gençlerbirliği S.K.+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Şanlıurfaspor ↓

Gençlerbirliği S.K. →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Şanlıurfaspor or draw

62%

Şanlıurfaspor or Gençlerbirliği S.K.

72%

Draw or Gençlerbirliği S.K.

66%

Winning margin

Şanlıurfaspor wins by 2+

14%

Gençlerbirliği S.K. wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Şanlıurfaspor 1+ goals

68%

Şanlıurfaspor 2+ goals

32%

Şanlıurfaspor 3+ goals

11%

Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1+ goals

71%

Gençlerbirliği S.K. 2+ goals

35%

Gençlerbirliği S.K. 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Şanlıurfaspor (draw refunded)

47%

Gençlerbirliği S.K. (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Şanlıurfaspor at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.19 · 37 matches

Gençlerbirliği S.K. away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.25 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Şanlıurfaspor attack 1.05 + Gençlerbirliği S.K. defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.15

Gençlerbirliği S.K. attack 1.26 + Şanlıurfaspor defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Şanlıurfaspor scores more

34%

level

28%

Gençlerbirliği S.K. scores more

38%

Gençlerbirliği S.K. at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Gençlerbirliği S.K. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

B. Çağıran

Gençlerbirliği S.K. · M

8.0

Match Events

24'

B. Çağıran↳ M. Yatabaré

30'

M. Çapar

46'

B. Gök← H. Tut

57'

Olarenwaju KayodePenalty confirmed

58'

Mehmet Yiğit

63'

A. Aydın← G. Donsah

65'

Cumali Bişi

65'

O. Karakullukçu← M. Yatabaré

71'

O. Karakullukçu↳ Amilton

72'

C. Şahin← B. Əkinçiər

72'

U. Akdemir← O. Kayode

73'

E. Kemaloğlu← Tiago Rodrigues

79'

J. Nshimirimana← C. Bişi

86'

C. Akabueze← O. Karakullukçu

87'

S. Yatabaré← B. Çağıran

90+6'

Orkun Ozdemir

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ŞanlıurfasporGençlerbirliği

Overview

55%Possession45%

8Total Shots16

1Corners6

9Fouls10

Shots

8Total Shots16

4On Target8

3Off Target4

1Blocked4

6Inside Box9

2Outside Box7

Passing

55%Possession45%

444Total Passes375

362Accurate Passes285

82%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

6Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls10

2Yellow Cards1

0Offsides1