Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1–1 Şanlıurfaspor

Gençlerbirliği S.K.

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Şanlıurfaspor

B. Çağıran 33'

E. Dening 9'

3/4/2024

1. Lig · Round 25Aktepe Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Gençlerbirliği S.K.45%

×Draw27%

Şanlıurfaspor29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gençlerbirliği S.K.Expected goals in this matchŞanlıurfaspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.08

Gençlerbirliği S.K.

1.41

Şanlıurfaspor

1.08

Gençlerbirliği S.K. creates 31% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 39 away

1.36

creates per match

1.10

1.07

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Gençlerbirliği S.K.

1.36

Şanlıurfaspor

1.10

allows per match

Gençlerbirliği S.K.

1.07

Şanlıurfaspor

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gençlerbirliği S.K.+0.00on par

Şanlıurfaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gençlerbirliği S.K. ↓

Şanlıurfaspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Gençlerbirliği S.K. or draw

71%

Gençlerbirliği S.K. or Şanlıurfaspor

73%

Draw or Şanlıurfaspor

55%

Winning margin

Gençlerbirliği S.K. wins by 2+

21%

Şanlıurfaspor wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1+ goals

76%

Gençlerbirliği S.K. 2+ goals

41%

Gençlerbirliği S.K. 3+ goals

17%

Şanlıurfaspor 1+ goals

66%

Şanlıurfaspor 2+ goals

29%

Şanlıurfaspor 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Gençlerbirliği S.K. (draw refunded)

61%

Şanlıurfaspor (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gençlerbirliği S.K. at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.07 · 87 matches

Şanlıurfaspor away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.46 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gençlerbirliği S.K. attack 1.36 + Şanlıurfaspor defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.41

Şanlıurfaspor attack 1.10 + Gençlerbirliği S.K. defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Gençlerbirliği S.K. scores more

45%

level

27%

Şanlıurfaspor scores more

29%

Gençlerbirliği S.K. at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Gençlerbirliği S.K. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

B. Çağıran

Gençlerbirliği S.K. · M

7.9

Match Events

9'

E. Dening↳ Aldair

33'

33'

38'

53'

58'

62'

64'

65'

O. Karakullukçu← M. Bostan

66'

O. Kayode← G. Laura

66'

C. Akabueze← J. Léa Siliki

66'

G. Landel← Y. Gültekin

66'

72'

73'

74'

74'

83'

E. Durmaz← B. Çağıran

87'

89'

90+3'

90+5'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GençlerbirliğiŞanlıurfaspor

Overview

51%Possession49%

7Total Shots3

0Corners6

17Fouls23

Shots

7Total Shots3

2On Target1

1Off Target2

4Blocked0

5Inside Box3

2Outside Box0

Passing

51%Possession49%

395Total Passes381

292Accurate Passes287

74%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

17Fouls23

4Yellow Cards6

3Offsides4