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Sankara Nationals vs Bolga AllStars — Division One League 2025

Sankara Nationals
Sankara Nationals
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Bolga AllStars
Bolga AllStars
2/28/2026Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 21

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Sankara Nationals63%
×Draw24%
Bolga AllStars13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sankara Nationals
1.60
Bolga AllStars
0.57

Sankara Nationals creates 181% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

creates per match

Sankara Nationals
1.21
Bolga AllStars
0.64

allows per match

Sankara Nationals
0.50
Bolga AllStars
2.00

finishing

Sankara Nationals+0.00on par
Bolga AllStars+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sankara Nationals ↓

Bolga AllStars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Sankara Nationals or draw
87%
Sankara Nationals or Bolga AllStars
76%
Draw or Bolga AllStars
37%

Winning margin

Sankara Nationals wins by 2+
35%
Bolga AllStars wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Sankara Nationals 1+ goals
80%
Sankara Nationals 2+ goals
47%
Sankara Nationals 3+ goals
22%
Bolga AllStars 1+ goals
43%
Bolga AllStars 2+ goals
11%
Bolga AllStars 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Sankara Nationals (draw refunded)
83%
Bolga AllStars (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sankara Nationals at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.50 · 14 matches

Bolga AllStars away — creates 0.64, concedes 2.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sankara Nationals attack 1.21 + Bolga AllStars defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.60

Bolga AllStars attack 0.64 + Sankara Nationals defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Sankara Nationals scores more
63%
level
24%
Bolga AllStars scores more
13%

Sankara Nationals at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Sankara Nationals will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sankara Nationals vs Bolga AllStars

Sankara Nationals beat Bolga AllStars 4-0 in Division One League on February 28, 2026.