Bolga AllStars 5–2 Sankara Nationals

Bolga AllStars

FT

5 – 2

HT: 4 – 1

Sankara Nationals

11/23/2025

Division One League · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Bolga AllStars60%

×Draw21%

Sankara Nationals19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bolga AllStarsExpected goals in this matchSankara Nationals

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

1.10

Bolga AllStars

2.10

Sankara Nationals

1.10

Bolga AllStars creates 91% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

2.21

creates per match

1.00

1.21

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Bolga AllStars

2.21

Sankara Nationals

1.00

allows per match

Bolga AllStars

1.21

Sankara Nationals

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bolga AllStars+0.00on par

Sankara Nationals+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bolga AllStars ↓

Sankara Nationals →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Bolga AllStars or draw

81%

Bolga AllStars or Sankara Nationals

79%

Draw or Sankara Nationals

40%

Winning margin

Bolga AllStars wins by 2+

37%

Sankara Nationals wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Bolga AllStars 1+ goals

88%

Bolga AllStars 2+ goals

62%

Bolga AllStars 3+ goals

35%

Sankara Nationals 1+ goals

67%

Sankara Nationals 2+ goals

30%

Sankara Nationals 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Bolga AllStars (draw refunded)

76%

Sankara Nationals (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bolga AllStars at home — creates 2.21, concedes 1.21 · 14 matches

Sankara Nationals away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bolga AllStars attack 2.21 + Sankara Nationals defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.10

Sankara Nationals attack 1.00 + Bolga AllStars defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Bolga AllStars scores more

60%

level

21%

Sankara Nationals scores more

19%

Bolga AllStars at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Bolga AllStars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff