Sangju Sangmu FC 1–1 Suwon Bluewings

Sangju Sangmu FC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Suwon Bluewings

Cho Gue-Sung 15'

E. Sarić 63'

4/2/2022

K League 1 · Round 7Gimcheon Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Sangju Sangmu FC41%

×Draw27%

Suwon Bluewings32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sangju Sangmu FCExpected goals in this matchSuwon Bluewings

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.14

Sangju Sangmu FC

1.33

Suwon Bluewings

1.14

Sangju Sangmu FC creates 17% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 94 away

1.30

creates per match

1.10

1.18

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Sangju Sangmu FC

1.30

Suwon Bluewings

1.10

allows per match

Sangju Sangmu FC

1.18

Suwon Bluewings

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sangju Sangmu FC+0.00on par

Suwon Bluewings+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sangju Sangmu FC ↓

Suwon Bluewings →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Sangju Sangmu FC or draw

68%

Sangju Sangmu FC or Suwon Bluewings

73%

Draw or Suwon Bluewings

59%

Winning margin

Sangju Sangmu FC wins by 2+

19%

Suwon Bluewings wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Sangju Sangmu FC 1+ goals

74%

Sangju Sangmu FC 2+ goals

38%

Sangju Sangmu FC 3+ goals

15%

Suwon Bluewings 1+ goals

68%

Suwon Bluewings 2+ goals

32%

Suwon Bluewings 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Sangju Sangmu FC (draw refunded)

56%

Suwon Bluewings (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sangju Sangmu FC at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.18 · 103 matches

Suwon Bluewings away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.36 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sangju Sangmu FC attack 1.30 + Suwon Bluewings defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.33

Suwon Bluewings attack 1.10 + Sangju Sangmu FC defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sangju Sangmu FC scores more

41%

level

27%

Suwon Bluewings scores more

32%

Sangju Sangmu FC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sangju Sangmu FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

Yu In-Soo

Sangju Sangmu FC · D

7.6

Match Events

15'

Cho Gue-Sung

52'

Kang Hyun-Muk← Yeom Ki-Hun

61'

Yu Je-Ho← Kim Sang-Jun

61'

Oh Hyeon-Gyu← S. Grønning

63'

E. Sarić↳ Lee Ki-Je

65'

Kwon Chang-Hoon← Kim Han-Gil

76'

Park Ji-Soo← Park Sang-Hyeok

90+3'

Kim Gyeong-Min← Cho Gue-Sung

90+3'

Jung Dong-Yun← Yu In-Soo

90+3'

Han Seok-Hee← Kim Gun-Hee

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SangjuSuwon

Overview

56%Possession44%

15Total Shots11

3Corners2

10Fouls16

Shots

15Total Shots11

3On Target4

4Off Target4

8Blocked3

4Inside Box7

11Outside Box4

Passing

56%Possession44%

552Total Passes428

478Accurate Passes357

87%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls16

0Offsides4