Sangju Sangmu FC 1–0 Gangwon FC: Result & Stats

Sangju Sangmu FC

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Gangwon FC

Cho Gue-Sung 63' (pen)

5/5/2022

K League 1 · Round 10Gimcheon Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

Sangju Sangmu FC42%

×Draw27%

Gangwon FC31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sangju Sangmu FCExpected goals in this matchGangwon FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.10

Sangju Sangmu FC

1.34

Gangwon FC

1.10

Sangju Sangmu FC creates 22% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 142 away

1.30

creates per match

1.02

1.18

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Sangju Sangmu FC

1.30

Gangwon FC

1.02

allows per match

Sangju Sangmu FC

1.18

Gangwon FC

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sangju Sangmu FC+0.00on par

Gangwon FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sangju Sangmu FC ↓

Gangwon FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Sangju Sangmu FC or draw

69%

Sangju Sangmu FC or Gangwon FC

73%

Draw or Gangwon FC

58%

Winning margin

Sangju Sangmu FC wins by 2+

19%

Gangwon FC wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Sangju Sangmu FC 1+ goals

74%

Sangju Sangmu FC 2+ goals

39%

Sangju Sangmu FC 3+ goals

15%

Gangwon FC 1+ goals

67%

Gangwon FC 2+ goals

30%

Gangwon FC 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Sangju Sangmu FC (draw refunded)

58%

Gangwon FC (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sangju Sangmu FC at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.18 · 103 matches

Gangwon FC away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.38 · 142 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sangju Sangmu FC attack 1.30 + Gangwon FC defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.34

Gangwon FC attack 1.02 + Sangju Sangmu FC defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sangju Sangmu FC scores more

42%

level

27%

Gangwon FC scores more

31%

Sangju Sangmu FC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sangju Sangmu FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32

Kang Yun-Sung

Sangju Sangmu FC · D

7.6

Match Events

7'

Ju-sung Kim

40'

Yang Hyun-Jun

46'

Kim Han-Gil← Kwon Chang-Hoon

46'

Park Ji-Soo← Seo Jin-Su

61'

Seung-hyun JungPenalty confirmed

62'

Yeong-bin Kim

63'

Cho Gue-SungPenalty

75'

Park Sang-Hyeok← Y. Kobayashi

80'

Gue-sung Cho

84'

Kim Ji-Hyun← Cho Gue-Sung

85'

Mun Ji-Hwan← Ko Seung-Beom

90+2'

Kim Gyeong-Min← Lee Young-Jae

90'

Hwang Mun Ki← Kang Ji-Hoon

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SangjuGangwon

Overview

61%Possession39%

9Total Shots9

4Corners4

9Fouls16

Shots

9Total Shots9

3On Target1

6Off Target5

0Blocked3

5Inside Box5

4Outside Box4

Passing

61%Possession39%

569Total Passes360

479Accurate Passes267

84%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls16

2Yellow Cards2

2Offsides2