Gangwon FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC

Gangwon FC

Preview

10:30

Gimcheon Sangmu FC

7/18/2026

K League 1 · Round 18Chuncheon Songam Stadium

Big match

41%

Gangwon FC

model favours

41%26%33%

Gangwon FC score first in only 13% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

50%

over 2.5 goals

54%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Gangwon FC41%

×Draw26%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gangwon FCExpected goals in this matchGimcheon Sangmu FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.24

Gangwon FC

1.43

Gimcheon Sangmu FC

1.24

Gangwon FC creates 15% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 45 away

1.54

creates per match

1.44

1.04

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Gangwon FC

1.54

Gimcheon Sangmu FC

1.44

allows per match

Gangwon FC

1.04

Gimcheon Sangmu FC

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gangwon FC+0.00on par

Gimcheon Sangmu FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gangwon FC ↓

Gimcheon Sangmu FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Gangwon FC or draw

67%

Gangwon FC or Gimcheon Sangmu FC

74%

Draw or Gimcheon Sangmu FC

59%

Winning margin

Gangwon FC wins by 2+

20%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Gangwon FC 1+ goals

76%

Gangwon FC 2+ goals

42%

Gangwon FC 3+ goals

17%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1+ goals

71%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2+ goals

35%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Gangwon FC (draw refunded)

56%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gangwon FC at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.04 · 46 matches

Gimcheon Sangmu FC away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.31 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gangwon FC attack 1.54 + Gimcheon Sangmu FC defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.43

Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.44 + Gangwon FC defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Gangwon FC scores more

41%

level

26%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC scores more

33%

Gangwon FC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Gangwon FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Even after scoring first, Gimcheon Sangmu FC win only 40%
33% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC’s goals come after the 75th minute
Gangwon FC outscore their xG (1.3 vs 0.6 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

FC

LDWWW

FC

DDLDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff