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Gangwon FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC — K League 1 2018

Gangwon FC
Gangwon FC
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
5/11/2025K League 1K League 1 · Round 13Chuncheon Songam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

Gangwon FC41%
×Draw26%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gangwon FC
1.42
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
1.25

Gangwon FC creates 14% more chances

Season form · 156 home / 117 away

creates per match

Gangwon FC
1.47
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
1.23

allows per match

Gangwon FC
1.26
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
1.38

finishing

Gangwon FC+0.00on par
Gimcheon Sangmu FC+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gangwon FC ↓

Gimcheon Sangmu FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Gangwon FC or draw
67%
Gangwon FC or Gimcheon Sangmu FC
74%
Draw or Gimcheon Sangmu FC
59%

Winning margin

Gangwon FC wins by 2+
19%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Gangwon FC 1+ goals
76%
Gangwon FC 2+ goals
41%
Gangwon FC 3+ goals
17%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1+ goals
71%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2+ goals
36%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Gangwon FC (draw refunded)
55%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gangwon FC at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.26 · 156 matches

Gimcheon Sangmu FC away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.38 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gangwon FC attack 1.47 + Gimcheon Sangmu FC defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.42

Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.23 + Gangwon FC defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Gangwon FC scores more
41%
level
26%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC scores more
33%

Gangwon FC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Gangwon FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

K League 1: Gangwon FC 0–4 Gimcheon Sangmu FC

Gimcheon Sangmu FC beat Gangwon FC 4-0 in K League 1 on May 11, 2025.

The match was played at Chuncheon Songam Stadium in Chuncheon.