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Sangju Sangmu FC vs Gangwon FC — K League 1 2026

Sangju Sangmu FC
Sangju Sangmu FC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Gangwon FC
Gangwon FC
11/24/2018K League 1K League 1 · Relegation Round - 4Sangju Stadium (Sangju)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

Sangju Sangmu FC42%
×Draw27%
Gangwon FC31%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sangju Sangmu FC
1.34
Gangwon FC
1.10

Sangju Sangmu FC creates 22% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 142 away

creates per match

Sangju Sangmu FC
1.30
Gangwon FC
1.02

allows per match

Sangju Sangmu FC
1.18
Gangwon FC
1.38

finishing

Sangju Sangmu FC+0.00on par
Gangwon FC+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sangju Sangmu FC ↓

Gangwon FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Sangju Sangmu FC or draw
69%
Sangju Sangmu FC or Gangwon FC
73%
Draw or Gangwon FC
58%

Winning margin

Sangju Sangmu FC wins by 2+
19%
Gangwon FC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sangju Sangmu FC 1+ goals
74%
Sangju Sangmu FC 2+ goals
39%
Sangju Sangmu FC 3+ goals
15%
Gangwon FC 1+ goals
67%
Gangwon FC 2+ goals
30%
Gangwon FC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Sangju Sangmu FC (draw refunded)
58%
Gangwon FC (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sangju Sangmu FC at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.18 · 103 matches

Gangwon FC away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.38 · 142 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sangju Sangmu FC attack 1.30 + Gangwon FC defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.34

Gangwon FC attack 1.02 + Sangju Sangmu FC defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sangju Sangmu FC scores more
42%
level
27%
Gangwon FC scores more
31%

Sangju Sangmu FC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sangju Sangmu FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sangju Sangmu FC vs Gangwon FC

Gangwon FC beat Sangju Sangmu FC 1-0 in K League 1 on November 24, 2018.

The match was played at Sangju Stadium (Sangju).