Sanga Balende 0–0 Don Bosco: Result & Stats

Sanga Balende

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Don Bosco

2/16/2026

Ligue 1 · Round 23

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Sanga Balende42%

×Draw30%

Don Bosco28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sanga BalendeExpected goals in this matchDon Bosco

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.89

Sanga Balende

1.17

Don Bosco

0.89

Sanga Balende creates 31% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 96 away

1.17

creates per match

0.85

0.92

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Sanga Balende

1.17

Don Bosco

0.85

allows per match

Sanga Balende

0.92

Don Bosco

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sanga Balende+0.00on par

Don Bosco+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sanga Balende ↓

Don Bosco →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Sanga Balende or draw

72%

Sanga Balende or Don Bosco

70%

Draw or Don Bosco

58%

Winning margin

Sanga Balende wins by 2+

18%

Don Bosco wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Sanga Balende 1+ goals

69%

Sanga Balende 2+ goals

33%

Sanga Balende 3+ goals

11%

Don Bosco 1+ goals

59%

Don Bosco 2+ goals

22%

Don Bosco 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Sanga Balende (draw refunded)

60%

Don Bosco (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sanga Balende at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.92 · 78 matches

Don Bosco away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.16 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sanga Balende attack 1.17 + Don Bosco defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.17

Don Bosco attack 0.85 + Sanga Balende defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sanga Balende scores more

42%

level

30%

Don Bosco scores more

28%

Sanga Balende at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sanga Balende will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff