Don Bosco 1–0 Sanga Balende: Result & Stats

Don Bosco

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Sanga Balende

11/10/2025

Ligue 1 · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Don Bosco50%

×Draw28%

Sanga Balende22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Don BoscoExpected goals in this matchSanga Balende

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

0.79

Don Bosco

1.34

Sanga Balende

0.79

Don Bosco creates 70% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 84 away

1.28

creates per match

0.63

0.96

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Don Bosco

1.28

Sanga Balende

0.63

allows per match

Don Bosco

0.96

Sanga Balende

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Don Bosco+0.00on par

Sanga Balende+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Don Bosco ↓

Sanga Balende →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Don Bosco or draw

78%

Don Bosco or Sanga Balende

72%

Draw or Sanga Balende

50%

Winning margin

Don Bosco wins by 2+

24%

Sanga Balende wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Don Bosco 1+ goals

74%

Don Bosco 2+ goals

39%

Don Bosco 3+ goals

15%

Sanga Balende 1+ goals

55%

Sanga Balende 2+ goals

19%

Sanga Balende 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Don Bosco (draw refunded)

69%

Sanga Balende (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Don Bosco at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.96 · 94 matches

Sanga Balende away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.40 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Don Bosco attack 1.28 + Sanga Balende defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.34

Sanga Balende attack 0.63 + Don Bosco defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Don Bosco scores more

50%

level

28%

Sanga Balende scores more

22%

Don Bosco at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Don Bosco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff