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Sanga Balende vs Bukavu Dawa — Ligue 1 2019

Sanga Balende
Sanga Balende
FT
3 – 2
Bukavu Dawa
Bukavu Dawa
12/21/2019Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 13Stade Kashala Bonzola

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Sanga Balende54%
×Draw26%
Bukavu Dawa21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sanga Balende
1.56
Bukavu Dawa
0.86

Sanga Balende creates 81% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 27 away

creates per match

Sanga Balende
1.17
Bukavu Dawa
0.81

allows per match

Sanga Balende
0.92
Bukavu Dawa
1.96

finishing

Sanga Balende+0.00on par
Bukavu Dawa+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sanga Balende ↓

Bukavu Dawa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Sanga Balende or draw
79%
Sanga Balende or Bukavu Dawa
74%
Draw or Bukavu Dawa
46%

Winning margin

Sanga Balende wins by 2+
28%
Bukavu Dawa wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Sanga Balende 1+ goals
79%
Sanga Balende 2+ goals
46%
Sanga Balende 3+ goals
21%
Bukavu Dawa 1+ goals
58%
Bukavu Dawa 2+ goals
21%
Bukavu Dawa 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Sanga Balende (draw refunded)
72%
Bukavu Dawa (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sanga Balende at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.92 · 78 matches

Bukavu Dawa away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.96 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sanga Balende attack 1.17 + Bukavu Dawa defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.56

Bukavu Dawa attack 0.81 + Sanga Balende defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Sanga Balende scores more
54%
level
26%
Bukavu Dawa scores more
21%

Sanga Balende at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Sanga Balende will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Sanga Balende 3–2 Bukavu Dawa

Sanga Balende beat Bukavu Dawa 3-2 in Ligue 1 on December 21, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Kashala Bonzola in Mbuji-Mayi.