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Bukavu Dawa vs Sanga Balende — Ligue 1 2019

Bukavu Dawa
Bukavu Dawa
CANC
00:00
Sanga Balende
Sanga Balende
3/15/2020Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 20Stade de la Concorde

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Bukavu Dawa35%
×Draw32%
Sanga Balende33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bukavu Dawa
0.96
Sanga Balende
0.92

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 84 away

creates per match

Bukavu Dawa
0.52
Sanga Balende
0.63

allows per match

Bukavu Dawa
1.21
Sanga Balende
1.40

finishing

Bukavu Dawa+0.00on par
Sanga Balende+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bukavu Dawa ↓

Sanga Balende →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Bukavu Dawa or draw
67%
Bukavu Dawa or Sanga Balende
68%
Draw or Sanga Balende
65%

Winning margin

Bukavu Dawa wins by 2+
13%
Sanga Balende wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Bukavu Dawa 1+ goals
62%
Bukavu Dawa 2+ goals
25%
Bukavu Dawa 3+ goals
7%
Sanga Balende 1+ goals
60%
Sanga Balende 2+ goals
23%
Sanga Balende 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Bukavu Dawa (draw refunded)
52%
Sanga Balende (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bukavu Dawa at home — creates 0.52, concedes 1.21 · 29 matches

Sanga Balende away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.40 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bukavu Dawa attack 0.52 + Sanga Balende defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 0.96

Sanga Balende attack 0.63 + Bukavu Dawa defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Bukavu Dawa scores more
35%
level
32%
Sanga Balende scores more
33%

Bukavu Dawa at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Bukavu Dawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bukavu Dawa vs Sanga Balende — Match Preview

Bukavu Dawa face Sanga Balende on March 15, 2020 in this Ligue 1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Bukavu Dawa host Sanga Balende at Stade de la Concorde.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.