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Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Shimizu S-pulse — J1 League 2025

Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Preview
05:00
Shimizu S-pulse
Shimizu S-pulse
10/24/2026J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 12Edion Peace Wing Hiroshima
Big match
48%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
model favours
48%28%24%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima have scored in 15 games running

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
61%
under 2.5 goals
44%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Sanfrecce Hiroshima48%
×Draw28%
Shimizu S-pulse24%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1.37
Shimizu S-pulse
0.89

Sanfrecce Hiroshima creates 54% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 31 away

creates per match

Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1.26
Shimizu S-pulse
0.97

allows per match

Sanfrecce Hiroshima
0.81
Shimizu S-pulse
1.48

finishing

Sanfrecce Hiroshima+0.00on par
Shimizu S-pulse+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sanfrecce Hiroshima ↓

Shimizu S-pulse →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Sanfrecce Hiroshima or draw
76%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima or Shimizu S-pulse
72%
Draw or Shimizu S-pulse
52%

Winning margin

Sanfrecce Hiroshima wins by 2+
23%
Shimizu S-pulse wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1+ goals
75%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2+ goals
40%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3+ goals
16%
Shimizu S-pulse 1+ goals
59%
Shimizu S-pulse 2+ goals
22%
Shimizu S-pulse 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Sanfrecce Hiroshima (draw refunded)
66%
Shimizu S-pulse (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sanfrecce Hiroshima at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.81 · 27 matches

Shimizu S-pulse away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.48 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sanfrecce Hiroshima attack 1.26 + Shimizu S-pulse defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.37

Shimizu S-pulse attack 0.97 + Sanfrecce Hiroshima defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sanfrecce Hiroshima scores more
48%
level
28%
Shimizu S-pulse scores more
24%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sanfrecce Hiroshima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Shimizu S-pulse score first in only 17% of matches
  • Shimizu S-pulse fall short of their xG (0.9 vs 1.4 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Attack-heavy
Shimizu S-pulse
Balanced
50%Possession50%
75%Pass accuracy79%
17.8ShotsBiggest gap13.2
1.61xG1.41
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Sanfrecce HiroshimaShimizu S-pulse

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
3
Draws
1
Shimizu S-pulse
Avg goals: 2.2BTTS: 60%
1–11–30–03–01–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Hiroshima
WLWW
S-pulse
WLDLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sanfrecce Hiroshima face Shimizu S-pulse (J1 League)

J1 League returns with Sanfrecce Hiroshima hosting Shimizu S-pulse. Match starts October 24, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Sanfrecce Hiroshima host Shimizu S-pulse at Edion Peace Wing Hiroshima.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.