Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1–0 Sagan Tosu: Result & Stats

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sagan Tosu

4/9/2023

J1 League · Round 7EDION Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 124+ matches

Sanfrecce Hiroshima49%

×Draw26%

Sagan Tosu25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sanfrecce HiroshimaExpected goals in this matchSagan Tosu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.97

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

1.48

Sagan Tosu

0.97

Sanfrecce Hiroshima creates 53% more chances

Season form · 149 home / 124 away

1.52

creates per match

0.99

0.95

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

1.52

Sagan Tosu

0.99

allows per match

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

0.95

Sagan Tosu

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sanfrecce Hiroshima+0.00on par

Sagan Tosu+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sanfrecce Hiroshima ↓

Sagan Tosu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Sanfrecce Hiroshima or draw

75%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima or Sagan Tosu

74%

Draw or Sagan Tosu

51%

Winning margin

Sanfrecce Hiroshima wins by 2+

25%

Sagan Tosu wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1+ goals

77%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2+ goals

43%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3+ goals

19%

Sagan Tosu 1+ goals

62%

Sagan Tosu 2+ goals

25%

Sagan Tosu 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Sanfrecce Hiroshima (draw refunded)

66%

Sagan Tosu (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sanfrecce Hiroshima at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.95 · 149 matches

Sagan Tosu away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.43 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sanfrecce Hiroshima attack 1.52 + Sagan Tosu defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.48

Sagan Tosu attack 0.99 + Sanfrecce Hiroshima defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Sanfrecce Hiroshima scores more

49%

level

26%

Sagan Tosu scores more

25%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sanfrecce Hiroshima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff