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Sagan Tosu vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima — J1 League 2018

Sagan Tosu
Sagan Tosu
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
7/21/2024J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 24Ekimae Real Estate Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 124+ matches

Sagan Tosu34%
×Draw28%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sagan Tosu
1.16
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 124 home / 151 away

creates per match

Sagan Tosu
1.26
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1.28

allows per match

Sagan Tosu
1.19
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1.05

finishing

Sagan Tosu+0.00on par
Sanfrecce Hiroshima+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sagan Tosu ↓

Sanfrecce Hiroshima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Sagan Tosu or draw
62%
Sagan Tosu or Sanfrecce Hiroshima
72%
Draw or Sanfrecce Hiroshima
66%

Winning margin

Sagan Tosu wins by 2+
14%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Sagan Tosu 1+ goals
69%
Sagan Tosu 2+ goals
32%
Sagan Tosu 3+ goals
11%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1+ goals
71%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2+ goals
35%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Sagan Tosu (draw refunded)
48%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sagan Tosu at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.19 · 124 matches

Sanfrecce Hiroshima away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.05 · 151 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sagan Tosu attack 1.26 + Sanfrecce Hiroshima defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.16

Sanfrecce Hiroshima attack 1.28 + Sagan Tosu defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sagan Tosu scores more
34%
level
28%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima scores more
38%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sanfrecce Hiroshima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J1 League: Sagan Tosu 1–4 Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Sanfrecce Hiroshima beat Sagan Tosu 4-1 in J1 League on July 21, 2024.

The match was played at Ekimae Real Estate Stadium in Tosu.