Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Melbourne Victory — AFC Champions League 2018

Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Melbourne Victory
Melbourne Victory
3/12/2019AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group Stage - 2Edion Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Sanfrecce Hiroshima70%
×Draw18%
Melbourne Victory11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sanfrecce Hiroshima
2.21
Melbourne Victory
0.76

Sanfrecce Hiroshima creates 191% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 11 away

creates per match

Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1.60
Melbourne Victory
0.91

allows per match

Sanfrecce Hiroshima
0.60
Melbourne Victory
2.82

finishing

Sanfrecce Hiroshima+0.00on par
Melbourne Victory+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sanfrecce Hiroshima ↓

Melbourne Victory →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Sanfrecce Hiroshima or draw
89%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima or Melbourne Victory
82%
Draw or Melbourne Victory
30%

Winning margin

Sanfrecce Hiroshima wins by 2+
46%
Melbourne Victory wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1+ goals
89%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2+ goals
65%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3+ goals
38%
Melbourne Victory 1+ goals
53%
Melbourne Victory 2+ goals
18%
Melbourne Victory 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Sanfrecce Hiroshima (draw refunded)
86%
Melbourne Victory (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sanfrecce Hiroshima at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.60 · 10 matches

Melbourne Victory away — creates 0.91, concedes 2.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sanfrecce Hiroshima attack 1.60 + Melbourne Victory defence 2.82 → ÷2 → 2.21

Melbourne Victory attack 0.91 + Sanfrecce Hiroshima defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Sanfrecce Hiroshima scores more
70%
level
18%
Melbourne Victory scores more
11%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Sanfrecce Hiroshima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Melbourne Victory

Sanfrecce Hiroshima beat Melbourne Victory 2-1 in AFC Champions League on March 12, 2019.

The match was played at Edion Stadium in Hiroshima.