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Melbourne Victory vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima — AFC Champions League 2018

Melbourne Victory
Melbourne Victory
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
5/22/2019AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group Stage - 6AAMI Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Melbourne Victory45%
×Draw25%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Melbourne Victory
1.60
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1.25

Melbourne Victory creates 28% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

creates per match

Melbourne Victory
1.70
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1.10

allows per match

Melbourne Victory
1.40
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1.50

finishing

Melbourne Victory+0.00on par
Sanfrecce Hiroshima+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Melbourne Victory ↓

Sanfrecce Hiroshima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Melbourne Victory or draw
70%
Melbourne Victory or Sanfrecce Hiroshima
75%
Draw or Sanfrecce Hiroshima
55%

Winning margin

Melbourne Victory wins by 2+
23%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Melbourne Victory 1+ goals
80%
Melbourne Victory 2+ goals
47%
Melbourne Victory 3+ goals
22%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1+ goals
71%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2+ goals
36%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Melbourne Victory (draw refunded)
60%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Melbourne Victory at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

Sanfrecce Hiroshima away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Melbourne Victory attack 1.70 + Sanfrecce Hiroshima defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.60

Sanfrecce Hiroshima attack 1.10 + Melbourne Victory defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Melbourne Victory scores more
45%
level
25%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima scores more
30%

Melbourne Victory at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Melbourne Victory will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Champions League: Melbourne Victory 1–3 Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Sanfrecce Hiroshima beat Melbourne Victory 3-1 in AFC Champions League on May 22, 2019.

The match was played at AAMI Park in Melbourne.