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Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Machida Zelvia — J1 League 2018

Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Preview
10:00
Machida Zelvia
Machida Zelvia
4/24/2027J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 31Edion Peace Wing Hiroshima
Big match
38%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
model favours
38%28%35%

Machida Zelvia are unbeaten in 9 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
57%
under 2.5 goals
49%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Sanfrecce Hiroshima38%
×Draw28%
Machida Zelvia35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1.23
Machida Zelvia
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 149 home / 43 away

creates per match

Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1.52
Machida Zelvia
1.40

allows per match

Sanfrecce Hiroshima
0.95
Machida Zelvia
0.93

finishing

Sanfrecce Hiroshima+0.00on par
Machida Zelvia+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sanfrecce Hiroshima ↓

Machida Zelvia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Sanfrecce Hiroshima or draw
65%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima or Machida Zelvia
72%
Draw or Machida Zelvia
62%

Winning margin

Sanfrecce Hiroshima wins by 2+
16%
Machida Zelvia wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1+ goals
71%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2+ goals
35%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3+ goals
13%
Machida Zelvia 1+ goals
69%
Machida Zelvia 2+ goals
33%
Machida Zelvia 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sanfrecce Hiroshima (draw refunded)
52%
Machida Zelvia (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sanfrecce Hiroshima at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.95 · 149 matches

Machida Zelvia away — creates 1.40, concedes 0.93 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sanfrecce Hiroshima attack 1.52 + Machida Zelvia defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.23

Machida Zelvia attack 1.40 + Sanfrecce Hiroshima defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sanfrecce Hiroshima scores more
38%
level
28%
Machida Zelvia scores more
35%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sanfrecce Hiroshima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Sanfrecce Hiroshima have scored in 15 games running
  • Sanfrecce Hiroshima have won 4 of the last 4 meetings
  • 70% of Machida Zelvia’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Top-of-the-table clash — Sanfrecce Hiroshima 4 vs Machida Zelvia 3
  • Both teams scored in 3 of the last 4 meetings
  • 35% of Machida Zelvia’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Defensively solid
Machida Zelvia
Defensively solid
50%Possession45%
74%Pass accuracy78%
16.8ShotsBiggest gap12.9
1.49xG1.63
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Sanfrecce HiroshimaMachida Zelvia

Head-to-head

4 previous meetings

4
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
0
Draws
0
Machida Zelvia
Avg goals: 2.8BTTS: 75%
2–12–12–02–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Hiroshima
WLWW
Zelvia
DDWDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sanfrecce Hiroshima face Machida Zelvia (J1 League)

J1 League returns with Sanfrecce Hiroshima hosting Machida Zelvia. Match starts April 24, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Sanfrecce Hiroshima host Machida Zelvia at Edion Peace Wing Hiroshima.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.