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Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Machida Zelvia — J1 League 2018

Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Machida Zelvia
Machida Zelvia
10/4/2025J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 33Edion Peace Wing Hiroshima

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Sanfrecce Hiroshima38%
×Draw28%
Machida Zelvia35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1.23
Machida Zelvia
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 149 home / 43 away

creates per match

Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1.52
Machida Zelvia
1.40

allows per match

Sanfrecce Hiroshima
0.95
Machida Zelvia
0.93

finishing

Sanfrecce Hiroshima+0.00on par
Machida Zelvia+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sanfrecce Hiroshima ↓

Machida Zelvia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Sanfrecce Hiroshima or draw
65%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima or Machida Zelvia
72%
Draw or Machida Zelvia
62%

Winning margin

Sanfrecce Hiroshima wins by 2+
16%
Machida Zelvia wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1+ goals
71%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2+ goals
35%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3+ goals
13%
Machida Zelvia 1+ goals
69%
Machida Zelvia 2+ goals
33%
Machida Zelvia 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sanfrecce Hiroshima (draw refunded)
52%
Machida Zelvia (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sanfrecce Hiroshima at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.95 · 149 matches

Machida Zelvia away — creates 1.40, concedes 0.93 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sanfrecce Hiroshima attack 1.52 + Machida Zelvia defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.23

Machida Zelvia attack 1.40 + Sanfrecce Hiroshima defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sanfrecce Hiroshima scores more
38%
level
28%
Machida Zelvia scores more
35%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sanfrecce Hiroshima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J1 League: Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2–1 Machida Zelvia

Sanfrecce Hiroshima beat Machida Zelvia 2-1 in J1 League on October 4, 2025.

The match was played at Edion Peace Wing Hiroshima in Hiroshima.