Machida Zelvia 1–2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Machida Zelvia

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

2/16/2025

J1 League · Round 1Machida GION Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Machida Zelvia50%

×Draw24%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Machida ZelviaExpected goals in this matchSanfrecce Hiroshima

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.13

Machida Zelvia

1.67

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

1.13

Machida Zelvia creates 48% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

2.16

creates per match

1.12

1.14

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Machida Zelvia

2.16

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

1.12

allows per match

Machida Zelvia

1.14

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

1.18

-0.36scores less than expected

finishing

+0.48scores more than expected

finishing

Machida Zelvia-0.36scores less

Sanfrecce Hiroshima+0.48scores more

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Machida Zelvia ↓

Sanfrecce Hiroshima →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Machida Zelvia or draw

74%

Machida Zelvia or Sanfrecce Hiroshima

76%

Draw or Sanfrecce Hiroshima

50%

Winning margin

Machida Zelvia wins by 2+

27%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Machida Zelvia 1+ goals

81%

Machida Zelvia 2+ goals

50%

Machida Zelvia 3+ goals

23%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1+ goals

68%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2+ goals

31%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Machida Zelvia (draw refunded)

66%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Machida Zelvia at home — creates 2.16, concedes 1.14 · 5 matches

Sanfrecce Hiroshima away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.18 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Machida Zelvia attack 2.16 + Sanfrecce Hiroshima defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.67

Sanfrecce Hiroshima attack 1.12 + Machida Zelvia defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Machida Zelvia scores more

50%

level

24%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima scores more

26%

Machida Zelvia at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Machida Zelvia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff