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Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC — AFC Champions League 2018

Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
5/8/2019AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group Stage - 5Hiroshima Big Arch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Sanfrecce Hiroshima63%
×Draw25%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1.58
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
0.52

Sanfrecce Hiroshima creates 204% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 17 away

creates per match

Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1.56
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
0.47

allows per match

Sanfrecce Hiroshima
0.56
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.59

finishing

Sanfrecce Hiroshima+0.00on par
Guangzhou Evergrande FC+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sanfrecce Hiroshima ↓

Guangzhou Evergrande FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–110%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Sanfrecce Hiroshima or draw
88%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima or Guangzhou Evergrande FC
75%
Draw or Guangzhou Evergrande FC
37%

Winning margin

Sanfrecce Hiroshima wins by 2+
35%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1+ goals
79%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2+ goals
47%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3+ goals
21%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1+ goals
41%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2+ goals
10%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Sanfrecce Hiroshima (draw refunded)
84%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sanfrecce Hiroshima at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.56 · 9 matches

Guangzhou Evergrande FC away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sanfrecce Hiroshima attack 1.56 + Guangzhou Evergrande FC defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.58

Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 0.47 + Sanfrecce Hiroshima defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Sanfrecce Hiroshima scores more
63%
level
25%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC scores more
12%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Sanfrecce Hiroshima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Champions League: Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1–0 Guangzhou Evergrande FC

Sanfrecce Hiroshima beat Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1-0 in AFC Champions League on May 8, 2019.

The match was played at Hiroshima Big Arch in Hiroshima.