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Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima — AFC Champions League 2018

Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
3/5/2019AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group Stage - 1Tianhe Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Guangzhou Evergrande FC31%
×Draw25%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.25
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1.56

Sanfrecce Hiroshima creates 25% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 9 away

creates per match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.28
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1.11

allows per match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC
2.00
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1.22

finishing

Guangzhou Evergrande FC+0.00on par
Sanfrecce Hiroshima+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guangzhou Evergrande FC ↓

Sanfrecce Hiroshima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Guangzhou Evergrande FC or draw
56%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC or Sanfrecce Hiroshima
75%
Draw or Sanfrecce Hiroshima
69%

Winning margin

Guangzhou Evergrande FC wins by 2+
13%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1+ goals
71%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2+ goals
36%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 3+ goals
13%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1+ goals
79%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2+ goals
46%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Guangzhou Evergrande FC (draw refunded)
41%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guangzhou Evergrande FC at home — creates 1.28, concedes 2.00 · 18 matches

Sanfrecce Hiroshima away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 1.28 + Sanfrecce Hiroshima defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.25

Sanfrecce Hiroshima attack 1.11 + Guangzhou Evergrande FC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Guangzhou Evergrande FC scores more
31%
level
25%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima scores more
44%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sanfrecce Hiroshima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Champions League: Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2–0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Guangzhou Evergrande FC beat Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2-0 in AFC Champions League on March 5, 2019.

The match was played at Tianhe Stadium in Guangzhou.