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Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs FC Tokyo — J1 League 2018

Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FC Tokyo
FC Tokyo
10/17/2025J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 34Edion Peace Wing Hiroshima

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 149+ matches

Sanfrecce Hiroshima45%
×Draw27%
FC Tokyo28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1.40
FC Tokyo
1.05

Sanfrecce Hiroshima creates 33% more chances

Season form · 149 home / 149 away

creates per match

Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1.52
FC Tokyo
1.15

allows per match

Sanfrecce Hiroshima
0.95
FC Tokyo
1.27

finishing

Sanfrecce Hiroshima+0.00on par
FC Tokyo+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sanfrecce Hiroshima ↓

FC Tokyo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Sanfrecce Hiroshima or draw
72%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima or FC Tokyo
73%
Draw or FC Tokyo
55%

Winning margin

Sanfrecce Hiroshima wins by 2+
21%
FC Tokyo wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1+ goals
75%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2+ goals
41%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3+ goals
17%
FC Tokyo 1+ goals
65%
FC Tokyo 2+ goals
28%
FC Tokyo 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sanfrecce Hiroshima (draw refunded)
61%
FC Tokyo (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sanfrecce Hiroshima at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.95 · 149 matches

FC Tokyo away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.27 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sanfrecce Hiroshima attack 1.52 + FC Tokyo defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.40

FC Tokyo attack 1.15 + Sanfrecce Hiroshima defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sanfrecce Hiroshima scores more
45%
level
27%
FC Tokyo scores more
28%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sanfrecce Hiroshima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs FC Tokyo

Sanfrecce Hiroshima and FC Tokyo drew 0-0 in J1 League on October 17, 2025.

The match was played at Edion Peace Wing Hiroshima in Hiroshima.