FC Tokyo 0–3 Sanfrecce Hiroshima: Result & Stats

FC Tokyo

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

5/25/2025

J1 League · Round 18New National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

FC Tokyo49%

×Draw24%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC TokyoExpected goals in this matchSanfrecce Hiroshima

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.16

FC Tokyo

1.66

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

1.16

FC Tokyo creates 43% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

2.19

creates per match

1.23

1.08

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

FC Tokyo

2.19

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

1.23

allows per match

FC Tokyo

1.08

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

1.13

-0.02on par

finishing

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

FC Tokyo-0.02on par

Sanfrecce Hiroshima+0.10scores more

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Tokyo ↓

Sanfrecce Hiroshima →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

FC Tokyo or draw

73%

FC Tokyo or Sanfrecce Hiroshima

76%

Draw or Sanfrecce Hiroshima

51%

Winning margin

FC Tokyo wins by 2+

26%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

FC Tokyo 1+ goals

81%

FC Tokyo 2+ goals

49%

FC Tokyo 3+ goals

23%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1+ goals

69%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2+ goals

32%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

FC Tokyo (draw refunded)

65%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Tokyo at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.08 · 6 matches

Sanfrecce Hiroshima away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.13 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Tokyo attack 2.19 + Sanfrecce Hiroshima defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.66

Sanfrecce Hiroshima attack 1.23 + FC Tokyo defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

FC Tokyo scores more

49%

level

24%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima scores more

27%

FC Tokyo at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "FC Tokyo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff