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Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Daegu FC — AFC Champions League 2018

Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Daegu FC
Daegu FC
4/10/2019AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group Stage - 3Hiroshima Big Arch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Sanfrecce Hiroshima36%
×Draw25%
Daegu FC39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1.40
Daegu FC
1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

creates per match

Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1.60
Daegu FC
2.30

allows per match

Sanfrecce Hiroshima
0.60
Daegu FC
1.20

finishing

Sanfrecce Hiroshima+0.00on par
Daegu FC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sanfrecce Hiroshima ↓

Daegu FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Sanfrecce Hiroshima or draw
61%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima or Daegu FC
75%
Draw or Daegu FC
64%

Winning margin

Sanfrecce Hiroshima wins by 2+
17%
Daegu FC wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1+ goals
75%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2+ goals
41%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3+ goals
17%
Daegu FC 1+ goals
77%
Daegu FC 2+ goals
42%
Daegu FC 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Sanfrecce Hiroshima (draw refunded)
49%
Daegu FC (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sanfrecce Hiroshima at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.60 · 10 matches

Daegu FC away — creates 2.30, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sanfrecce Hiroshima attack 1.60 + Daegu FC defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.40

Daegu FC attack 2.30 + Sanfrecce Hiroshima defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sanfrecce Hiroshima scores more
36%
level
25%
Daegu FC scores more
39%

Daegu FC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Daegu FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Daegu FC

Sanfrecce Hiroshima beat Daegu FC 2-0 in AFC Champions League on April 10, 2019.

The match was played at Hiroshima Big Arch in Hiroshima.