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Daegu FC vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima — AFC Champions League 2018

Daegu FC
Daegu FC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
4/23/2019AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group Stage - 4DGB Daegu Bank Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Daegu FC63%
×Draw20%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Daegu FC
2.14
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1.00

Daegu FC creates 114% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 10 away

creates per match

Daegu FC
2.78
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1.10

allows per match

Daegu FC
0.89
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1.50

finishing

Daegu FC+0.00on par
Sanfrecce Hiroshima+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Daegu FC ↓

Sanfrecce Hiroshima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Daegu FC or draw
83%
Daegu FC or Sanfrecce Hiroshima
80%
Draw or Sanfrecce Hiroshima
37%

Winning margin

Daegu FC wins by 2+
40%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Daegu FC 1+ goals
88%
Daegu FC 2+ goals
63%
Daegu FC 3+ goals
36%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1+ goals
63%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2+ goals
26%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Daegu FC (draw refunded)
79%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Daegu FC at home — creates 2.78, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

Sanfrecce Hiroshima away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Daegu FC attack 2.78 + Sanfrecce Hiroshima defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.14

Sanfrecce Hiroshima attack 1.10 + Daegu FC defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Daegu FC scores more
63%
level
20%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima scores more
17%

Daegu FC at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Daegu FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Daegu FC vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Sanfrecce Hiroshima beat Daegu FC 1-0 in AFC Champions League on April 23, 2019.

The match was played at DGB Daegu Bank Park in Daegu.